New Crowdsourcing Project: Improving the Game Winning Percentage Estimates

For awhile now I've been thinking of improving the game winning percentages in the help file. For example, for Accordion it says 2%. This is the expected winning percentage of an average player. Many of these estimates have not been updated in years, if ever.

But it is a big job, as there are 930 games.

So I thought maybe we could do it here. We take a small group of games (say, 20 at a time), list out the current estimates and then argue about what they should be. Anybody interested?
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Comments

  • Member, Beta Tester
    Always! =D>
  • Member, Beta Tester
    That's a little unfair Richard. Your average will always be better than mine. Do we want to start at #1. Or just all play random?
  • Member, Beta Tester
    the worst I have found is All in a row which is claimed as 95% but looking at the high score stats it is showing as 0.9%
  • Administrator, Beta Tester
    OK, here are the first 20 games for discussion:

    Game Name, (Help File Winning Percentage), Average from Online Stats

    Accordion (2%), 7.9%
    Ace of Hearts (80%), 94.9%
    Aces and Kings (5%), 4.9%
    Aces and Kings Easy (25%), 64.6%
    Aces Up (4%), 3.5%

    Aces Up Pairs (15%), 57.7%
    Aces Wild (30%), 6.7% (only 15 games)
    Acey and Kingsley (5%), 2.8%
    Acme (10%), 12.9%
    Acquaintance (50%), 48.2%

    Acquaintance One (20%), 32.3% (this Acquaintance data is weird)
    Acute Triangle (50%), 95.7%
    Adela (2%), 1.4%
    Adelaide (95%), 89.3%
    Admiral's Patience (30%), 23.1%

    Agnes Bernauer (50%), 50.2%
    Agnes Sorel (<1%), 0.8%
    Agnes Three (90%), 90.7%
    Alaska (15%), 10.1%
    Alexander the Great (15%), 16.0%

    Ok, some of these look good, others not so good. Discuss.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Mike made the point that I was just about to. Our results will be dictated by whether we play in numerical order or cherry-pick random games. I'm fairly sure for example that I could get a decent double figure percentage for Aces and Kings by carefully selecting the games I played.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Aces Wild (30%), 6.7% (only 15 games), I have played about 185 ( 1 through 185) games and only lost 5.
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    446 x 146 - 25K
  • Administrator, Beta Tester
    We are trying to get an average here, so just playing random games works. But for those games where you could cherry pick games with success (which isn't every game), that would be considered a valid strategy and your results would still count.

    Unless Thor is just really good at Aces Wild, it looks like the estimate is low.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    I've replayed the following games in numerical order. (Accordion, Ace of Hearts,Aces and Kings, Aces and Kings Easy and Aces Up). That gives me a realistic idea of how difficult the games are without cherry-picking. Even using this harder option I feel that the odds you have quoted from the online stats are realistic. The only exception is Aces & Kings Easy. I only lost one of the first ten games. If I put my mind to it I could probably win that one too. 80% could be nearer than your suggested mark.
    Re Aces Wild, we discussed this at length when it first came out. Marty was the one who got his head round it best. He is the champ. My stats were in the mid forties. Based on those even your 30% is decidedly low. How about 70%?
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Aces Up Pairs .......... Nos. 1-10 without spending ages replaying them yielded 50% winners. From that I feel that the online average you quoted is realistic.
    Btw ..... it's a pretty decent game
    ---------------------------------------------------
    Acey & Kingsley. Played 1-10 inclusive. One winner (#2). Also played another 10 random deals and ignored the worst looking ones. Again, one winner, (#1993020287). The only thing that improved by fairly casual cherry-picking was my average score. 3-4% looks very achievable but I would not challenge anyone who scored 5-10% by choosing their games carefully.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    unless you have all 4 aces on the tableau, all games seem to be winnable. I love it, freecell plus is about 95% winnable ( 847 games in order) in the first million, I believe. Blue jacket also seems to be about 95% also, out of 1748 games played ( in order) I and (Richardscotland) have not lost any games
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Acme has practically no skill involved. I slogged through Nos.1-25 and had a win rate of exactly 20%. I expect that could be improved by screening out the worst looking deals. I'd imagine that 15-20% would be readily achievable on the long haul.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Acquaintance ...... We used to play this quite a lot years ago. Ken may be able to confirm it but I'm fairly sure we won practically all of them. I would class it as "mainly skill". I've just played 1-10 with 100% winners. #10 was difficult but the others were fairly straightforward.. 80%+ would be a reasonable difficulty rating.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Acquaintance One ............ The identical deals played in Acquaintance produced just 3 winners from 10 played. A much harder game. Very unlikely to produce much more than 20% even with cherry-picking. It's virtually impossible to differentiate between a good deal and a bad one. Anyone recording high percentages is probably playing each game under one player name and saving the winners. Then use another player name and fire in all your saved games. 100% win rate can be achieved like this. Could explain the "weird" data you mentioned.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Acute Triangle ....... 1-10 produced 100% winners so the current 50% rating would appear to be decidedly low. Anyone playing it regularly could probably maintain an average in the high 90 percents.
  • edited March 3 Member, Beta Tester
    Adela .... Played 10 in numerical order plus another 10 cherry picking half decent looking deals. No joy with any of them, 0%. I can well believe that serious cherry-picking would throw up the occasional winner. 1-2% sounds about right to me.
    Getting an empty space is only possible when the stock has been emptied. Therefore you don't see many. I feel that the game could be improved by allowing players to move cards into spaces at this point It's difficult enough without this moving restriction.
    ------------------------------
    Adelaide is about right.
  • edited March 3 Member, Beta Tester
    I have always found Klondike Territory way easier than Northwest Territory.

    The difficulty for Northwest Territory is Easy but change it to Medium...%50 is fine.

    For Klondike Territory, the percentage is %30 and it should be %70.

  • Member, Beta Tester
    You may have a case but it would probably make it easier for all concerned if we stick to the group of games that Thomas asked us to evaluate. ie, from Accordion to Alexander the Great. It is going to be a massive task to go through all 930 games.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Admiral's Patience ...... takes too long to play a decent sized sample but I managed 2 winners from the first 5 (40%). By only selecting games with a good reserve pile it wouldn't be difficult to improve on that. I know from playing it years ago that if you take your time and concentrate on each card you can win a decent percentage. I have no issues with your 30% as you are looking for an average winnable score.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    Agnes Bernauer looks okay at 50% or so.
    Agnes Sorel (<1%) is also pretty accurate I think. Cherry picked quite a number with no success.
    Alaska .... I managed 20% but 15% is a decent target.
    Alexander the Great.....Not the type of game I like. A less than enthusiastic attempt at 1-10 produced 1 winner. Regular players could expect the 15% it is currently rated at.
  • Member
    These statistics are based on playing at least 1000 games:

    FORTY THIEVES (PGS rated 10%) actual win % = 48%

    FORTY BANDITS (PGS rated 40%) actual win % = 57%

    KETTLE HILL (PGS rated 40%) actual win % = 79%

    CARLTON (PGS rated 5%) actual win % = 70%

    CARLTON CELL (PGS rated 30%) actual win % = 100%

    BAKERS GAME (PGS rated 20%) actual win % = 75%
  • edited March 3 Member, Beta Tester
    My past stats for Agnes Bernauer were just over 60%. Never played Accordion before. But it looks like the 2% figure to be correct. It's mostly luck of the draw.
    Agnes Sorrel. Played about 50 hands. Never won one. 5% on Aces up.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    During this exercise would it not be a good idea to re-evaluate difficulty ratings a bit more specifically in the rules for each game?
    very easy - easy,
    easy -moderate,
    moderate -medium,
    medium - difficult,
    difficult - very difficult,
    very difficult - extremely difficult.

  • Member, Beta Tester
    Or how about "Only Richard Can Solve".
    Or perhaps a Robot. But they may be one and the same.
  • Administrator, Beta Tester
    Yes, as Richard said we should stick to the group of games we are talking about, otherwise things will get crazy. I'll be summarizing this group's changes soon, and then posting the next group in a new thread.

    The difficulty ratings generally go along with the percentages, so if the percentage is high it becomes easy, etc.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    I'd generally agree about the difficulty ratings. One example of an anomaly would be Blue Jacket. Marty and myself have played a huge number in numerical order with 100% win rate. Most people would still regard it as a difficult game despite its track record. We can cross that bridge when we come to it. :)
  • Member, Beta Tester
    When you are updating the difficulty ratings would it not be a good idea to add the rating to the header cards of each game in the main menu? eg, at present you have Accordion,Simple game, Hard,Mostly skill etc. Simply saying "Hard, 2%" would mean that players would not have to select that game and then go into the rules to find out if a game was beyond their capabilities or not. It's always irritated me (although that's not difficult). ;))
  • Administrator, Beta Tester
    So proposed changes:

    Accordion (2%), 7.9% 2%->8%
    Ace of Hearts (80%), 94.9% 80%->95%
    Aces and Kings (5%), 4.9%
    Aces and Kings Easy (25%), 64.6% 25%->75% ?
    Aces Up (4%), 3.5%

    Aces Up Pairs (15%), 57.7% 15%->55%
    Aces Wild (30%), 6.7% (only 15 games) 30%->85% ?
    Acey and Kingsley (5%), 2.8%
    Acme (10%), 12.9% 10%->15%
    Acquaintance (50%), 48.2%

    Acquaintance One (20%), 32.3%
    Acute Triangle (50%), 95.7% 50%->95%
    Adela (2%), 1.4%
    Adelaide (95%), 89.3%
    Admiral's Patience (30%), 23.1%

    Agnes Bernauer (50%), 50.2%
    Agnes Sorel (<1%), 0.8%
    Agnes Three (90%), 90.7%
    Alaska (15%), 10.1%
    Alexander the Great (15%), 16.0%
  • Member, Beta Tester
    They look okay to me with the possible exceptions of the two with question marks appended. As Marty has played the most Aces Wild games and has developed a flawless technique I think we should accept whatever rating he suggests. I know he only lost 3 games out of the first 100 in climb mode so even 90% is probably on the low side. Over to you Marty!
    Aces & Kings Easy is another one where a high percentage of games can be won even in climb mode. 90%+ in my opinion if you have mastered the technique. 95% is very probable. I'd class it as medium - difficult though because the average player is unlikely to spot how to use the waste pile to its best advantage. The winnability hinges almost entirely around which cards you CHOOSE to allow into the four tableau piles. I try to keep one or more cards there that I can play onto the foundations at a time of my choosing. I will only do so when the card that will replace it is a beneficial one. If not I undo and play a fresh card from the stock. There is no point in allowing those cells to become clogged with cards that you will be unable to play for ages. Perhaps a hint to that effect in the rules wouldn't go amiss.
  • Member, Beta Tester
    I have now played 209 games and only lost 6. They thing is you have to watch the Aces. If all 4 aces are on the Tableau, it is almost a sure looser, unless one of the aces is the last card in the pile. If you have at least one ace in the waste pile it is a sure winner if you play the cards correctly. I would say 90% and mostly skill with a Medium to Hard Once you have the technique down then it is easy as pie to win
  • Member, Beta Tester
    my over 1000 played games
    Ali Baba rated 45% mine 52%
    Algiers rated 40% mine 100% in 2372 games
    Reserved pyramid rated 90% mine 83%
    Lady of the Manor rated 30% mine 35%
    Double or Quits rated 47% mine 41%
    Duke rated 99% mine 99%
    Double Klondike rated 99% mine 100%
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